Being an IT-based company, you would expect a web-based seminar held by Crystal Ball to run smoothly, and that was indeed the case with the “webinar” they hosted today (22nd February), titled “Monte Carlo Simulation in Chemical Process Design”.
Pre-event sign up was painless and all the required information was emailed out to the attendees with plenty of time. Utilising Webex software to host the link-up, all that was required of us was to install a required patch for IE (or, technically, a ‘thin client’) and then we were ready.
For those who are new to webinars, the idea is that you log on to a website that displays a presentation, whilst simultaneously dialling-in via either your telephone or internet phone to hear the audio. Bearing in mind also that the event was being held in Denver, I was in the UK and my internet connection was wireless, the opportunity for defects was huge!
Nevertheless, the webinar started smoothly and on time, with everything appearing to be working fine. We were introduced to the main speaker, Randy Perry, a master consultant programme manager with Sigma Breakthrough Technologies International, who was going to take us through how Monte Carlo can be used in Chemical Process Design.
First of all he explained how Monte Carlo is used as part of the Design for Six Sigma (DfSS) toolkit. After the Business Opportunity has been recognised, and the Voice of the Customer obtained, the next step in the methodology is the design & development of the product, and this is where Monte Carlo comes in.
The example Randy used was of a high purity phenol facility where new customer requirements required an increase in production. Using the online presentation to display screenshots, Randy took us, step-by-step, through how Monte Carlo assesses the plant production rates to ascertain if the required rate is achievable.
In the example used, the required level of efficiency was not possible. Randy showed how Monte Carlo can then be used to isolate the sources of variation to find the root cause of the inefficiencies, running simulations based on various different scenarios with the setup of the plant to ascertain optimal operating conditions in order to achieve the required output.
Once the optimal performance was found using the simulations, Randy then took us through how Monte Carlo can be used to build a financial analysis of Net Present Value (NPV), as well as utilse historical financial estimate data to calculate cost variation in order to efficiently evaluate financial contingency.
Randy’s presentation lasted approximately 45 minutes after which he took questions. The questions are submitted via a system similar to the well-known “Instant Messenger” – at the press of a button, a dialog box appears where you type your question, press Go, and it is sent to the webinar host. These questions can be submitted at any time and in this case were all dealt with at the end of the presentation. This is a great system as a question can be “asked” while still fresh in your head, but does not interrupt the flow of the presenter.
As with his fine presentation, Randy’s answers were full and efficient, and he gave an excellent representation of how Monte Carlo can be used to assist with DfSS.
The technical aspects of the webinar production ran very smoothly. There were a few minutes when the audio, coming down the phoneline, became a bit “echo-ey”, but this was the only minor problem in the whole hour-long broadcast. Overall this is an excellent way to learn quickly, efficiently and interactively… and all from the comfort of your own office.
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For more information about Crystal Ball webinars, see their microsite here.
For more information about Sigma Breakthrough Technologies International, click here.
